Cal St. Bakersfield

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	220.0
Current RPI:	220
Expected SOS:	115
Current SOS:	115
Current Record:	9-18
Expected Record:	9-18
Current Conf Record:	5-10
Expected Conf Record:	5-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-5
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	156
Expected OOC SOS:	47

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-18	220.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Bakersfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	A	77-53	L	0%
11-16	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	91-59	L	0%
11-19	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	A	73-85	W	100%
11-24	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	N	64-62	W	100%
11-25	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	N	72-75	L	0%
11-29	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	75-66	L	0%
12-2	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	52-60	L	0%
12-5	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	70-55	L	0%
12-9	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	H	66-55	W	100%
12-16	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	H	55-53	W	100%
12-20	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	A	76-62	L	0%
12-27	Arkansas (30.0)	SEC	A	95-68	L	0%
1-6	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	A	75-42	L	0%
1-11	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	H	74-87	L	0%
1-13	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	H	53-66	L	0%
1-18	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	A	62-59	L	0%
1-20	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	A	78-89	W	100%
1-26	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	A	59-55	L	0%
2-1	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	H	91-61	W	100%
2-3	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	H	81-58	W	100%
2-8	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	A	69-43	L	0%
2-10	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	A	68-66	L	0%
2-17	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	H	71-58	W	100%
2-22	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	H	47-70	L	0%
2-24	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	H	64-57	W	100%
3-3	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	A	81-68	L	0%
3-8	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	N	81-74	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Bakersfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cal St. Bakersfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cal St. Bakersfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	26.51	26.51	33.33	33.33	-8.84	-8.84
Utah Valley	WAC	6.35	6.35	61.54	61.54	1.47	1.47
Grand Canyon	WAC	4.74	4.74	66.67	66.67	1.58	1.58
New Mexico St.	WAC	4.69	4.69	82.14	82.14	3.02	3.02
UMKC	WAC	4.65	4.65	25.93	25.93	-2.24	-2.24
Seattle	WAC	4.63	4.63	57.14	57.14	0.66	0.66
Chicago St.	WAC	4.57	4.57	3.57	3.57	-4.24	-4.24
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	4.57	4.57	39.29	39.29	-0.98	-0.98
Georgia Southern	SB	3.77	3.77	62.07	62.07	0.91	0.91
Idaho	BSky	3.77	3.77	74.07	74.07	1.81	1.81
Northern Arizona	BSky	2.01	2.01	10.34	10.34	-1.59	-1.59
Arizona	P12	1.94	1.94	78.79	78.79	1.12	1.12
Central Michigan	MAC	1.92	1.92	51.72	51.72	0.07	0.07
UCLA	P12	1.91	1.91	64.52	64.52	0.55	0.55
Arkansas	SEC	1.88	1.88	66.67	66.67	0.63	0.63
Fresno St.	MWC	1.88	1.88	62.07	62.07	0.45	0.45
Delaware	CAA	1.85	1.85	36.67	36.67	-0.49	-0.49
Lamar	Slnd	1.85	1.85	55.56	55.56	0.21	0.21
Southern Utah	BSky	0.28	0.28	36.67	36.67	-0.08	-0.08
Idaho St.	BSky	0.28	0.28	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.26	0.26	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.25	0.25	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Weber St.	BSky	0.25	0.25	60.71	60.71	0.05	0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.25	0.25	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.25	0.25	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.22	0.22	60.71	60.71	0.05	0.05
UC Riverside	BW	0.22	0.22	24.14	24.14	-0.11	-0.11
New Mexico	MWC	0.21	0.21	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.19	0.19	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.19	0.19	30.77	30.77	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.19	0.19	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.18	0.18	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Georgia St.	SB	0.18	0.18	68.75	68.75	0.07	0.07
Little Rock	SB	0.18	0.18	20.00	20.00	-0.11	-0.11
California	P12	0.17	0.17	25.81	25.81	-0.08	-0.08
USC	P12	0.17	0.17	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Portland St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	16.67	16.67	-0.11	-0.11
UTEP	CUSA	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.15	0.15	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
San Diego	WCC	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.14	0.14	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.13	0.13	12.50	12.50	-0.10	-0.10
UC Davis	BW	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Montana	BSky	0.13	0.13	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Nevada	MWC	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	73.33	73.33	0.06	0.06
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois	B10	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
BYU	WCC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Hawaii	BW	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Notre Dame	ACC	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	CAA	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.09	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
SMU	Amer	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UMBC	AE	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
UNLV	MWC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Wichita St.	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Appalachian St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01